Setting Sun: NBA predictions at first sight, the Suns versus. Wizards line seems short and straightforward Phoenix play, despite the fact that star Devin Booker is extremely unlikely to participate. Not so quickly! The Suns have failed to cover three consecutive games on zero days rest (they won in Memphis last night), finishing 31.5 points short of expectations in those games. If you want to wager on totals, three of their four no-rest games this season have gone under, as have nine of 14 Washington covers.
Milwaukee began as 4.5-point favorites, which should send off warning bells in your brain. We already know that Khris Middleton will not play, but as long as Jrue Holiday is on the floor (which is likely), Milwaukee is a tiny favorite. Since the start of last season, they are 17-12-1 ATS (58.6%) when installed as a favorite of fewer than five points, including an 8-3 ATS record when the total is more than 226 points.
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No D in Detroit: The defense might be absent in Detroit tonight, as the Pistons and Magic are slated to play a coin toss game. Overs have paid in six of nine games when the Magic are engaged in a game with a spread of less than four points, and three of four when the Pistons are involved. You’re dealing with smaller samples, but the Magic are only 3-6 ATS in these situations, so if you’re looking for a lean, the home team could be the way to go.
Motown Momentum: Speaking of the Pistons, two young emerging prospects continue to go unnoticed in the fantasy basketball market. Jalen Duren, a rookie center who joined the Pistons’ starting lineup earlier this month, is fourth in the league in rebounding yet is a free agent in well over 80% of ESPN leagues. We’ve praised Killian Hayes several times, but despite showing remarkable offensive progress, he’s still only on the rosters of around a fourth of leagues. Hayes, for example, had 18 points, 10 assists, and five rebounds in an overtime defeat to the Clippers Friday night. Both should be used tonight in a great matchup against the Magic.
Replacing a King: Domantas Sabonis of the Kings will apparently attempt to play with a broken right thumb, which seems to be a difficult challenge. Sabonis did not play in Friday night’s defeat to the Nuggets, and his availability for tonight’s rematch with Denver seems to be in question. Trey Lyles (99% availability) of Sacramento came off the bench to deliver a double-double in 24 minutes on Tuesday and might be busy again this evening. Richaun Holmes also returned with a good line last night for those in deeper leagues.
Knowing Naz: Due to a right calf strain, the Timberwolves will be without Karl-Anthony Towns tonight against the Pelicans, forcing Naz Reid into a key frontcourt position against a big New Orleans frontcourt. Reid has averaged 17.7 points and 7.3 rebounds in his previous six games, attempting to mimic Towns’ floor-stretching by making two 3-pointers per game in this sample. Reid, on the other hand of NBA predictions, is a free agent in 95% of leagues.
Breaking down the schedule for Wednesday
- Line: “Magic” (-1.5)
- Money line: Pistons (+105), Magic (-125).
- 229.5 points total
- Total projected by the BPI: 236.9 points
- BPI win percentage: Magic (51.8%)
- Marvin Bagley III is questionable.
- Jalen Suggs has been ruled out.
- Nota bene: BPI figures include players who have been ruled out but presume doubtful players will play.
Isaiah Stewart (played in 17.7% of leagues) is a streamer for NBA predictions. With Marvin Bagley III ruled out for Wednesday’s game, Stewart is a strong streamer. He is coming off a 50-point fantasy outing against the Clippers on Monday, and he will face a Magic squad that ranks 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Stewart has thrived as a stretch big for the Pistons after Jalen Duren’s switch to center. Eric Moody’s
Jalen Duren (rostered in 17.1% of leagues) is a streamer for NBA predictions. Duren should be rostered in a greater proportion of leagues. In five of his last seven games, he has earned 30 or more fantasy points. Duren is an excellent streamer in category formats if you need points and rebounds. — Moody
Over 229.5 is the best wager. The Pistons are 26th in points scored per 100 possessions, while the Magic are 24th for NBA predictions. Although neither club is particularly great offensively, both Detroit and Orlando are unimpressive defensively. This makes me feel they can outperform the total. The Pistons’ games have gone over the total in four of their last five, while the Magic’s games have gone over the total in four straight.
